Share |

Ruffer LLP

After reaching extraordinary valuations, zeitgeist stocks are yet to return to reasonable levels

December 9, 2022

Ruffer investment director Duncan MacInnes delves into the truth and fiction of the bull market.

In the classic Christmas film Miracle on 34th Street, Kris Kringle is on trial for claiming to be the real Santa Claus. His defence lawyer says, “If this court finds that there is no Santa, I ask the court to judge which is worse: a lie that draws a smile or a truth that draws a tear.”

Doesn’t that feel like markets recently?

An opportunity at our fingerTIPS

November 14, 2022

Has the sell-off in long-dated bonds presented an opportunity to add risk to portfolios, asks Ruffer’s Jasmine Yeo?

Market sell-offs can provide the chance to buy quality assets at attractive valuations. Of course, if you can preserve capital as prices fall, then you’ll be better placed to take advantage of any opportunities that arise.

But buying equities isn’t the only way to dial up risk in portfolios today.

We see the recent falls at the long end of the US bond market as an opportunity worth grabbing.

Making the case for cash

November 4, 2022

Cash is trash. Cash is a melting ice cube. Going to cash is giving up... Ruffer investment director Duncan MacInnes says there's still life in the folding stuff yet!

Cash is trash. Cash is a melting ice cube. Going to cash is giving up.

Ruffer currently has the highest weighting to cash or cash-like assets in our history. We are concerned that liquidity is the new leverage and that a degradation of liquidity conditions poses an imminent danger to investor portfolios.

So why, unlike other investment managers, are we comfortable owning cash today?

Impact investing: How a fund of funds approach can help address challenges in private markets

October 26, 2022

Minimising the negative societal consequences of an investment is no longer just a ‘Nice to have’. Investors today are increasingly prioritising positive and measurable environmental, governance or social outcomes alongside financial gains, says Russell Investments’ Samantha Steele.

Private equity markets have seen a surge of interest in impact investing in recent years. In a recent survey by Pitchbook, 65% of respondents managing external money said that they had offered impact strategies to their clients, up from 57% in 2021. However, challenges around transparency, reporting and access to opportunities are common. Here’s how a fund of funds approach can help.

Could rising interest rates trigger a stampede out of risky assets?

October 17, 2022

It may be time for a bit of grin and bear it before we can once again look for reasons to be cheerful, says Steve Russell, investment director at Ruffer LLP.

Warning: the following contains explicit language of a bearish nature. Readers of a more nervous disposition may want to look away now…

Even after three consecutive quarters of losses in both equities and bonds, investors may not be out of the woods. So far, it has been a painful, but orderly repricing of risky assets. Now, we fear something worse - a liquidation.

Jonathan Ruffer’s Investment Review

October 4, 2022

In a world where people find themselves without the ability to pay commitments as they arise, forced selling drives prices, says Ruffer LLP chairman Jonathan Ruffer.

Jonathan Ruffer’s investment review

July 19, 2022

Inflation oscillates: it’s an idea when it’s not about, and a defining feature when it is, says Ruffer LLP chairman Jonathan Ruffer.

Inflation oscillates: it’s an idea when it’s not about, and a defining feature when it is. The only other word which comes to mind with similar status is ‘war’. Irrelevant or inexorable – the human mind finds it hard to make a judgement between the two extremes.

The Bank of England’s inflation forecast looks like a triumph of hope over reality

June 10, 2022

Who’d be a central banker today? Once, they were the masters of the universe, bravely slaying the dragon of inflation and slashing interest rates to save the economy in times of peril. Today, they seem powerless to control inflation, says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Steve Russell.

Who’d be a central banker today? Once, they were the masters of the universe, bravely slaying the dragon of inflation and slashing interest rates to save the economy in times of peril.

Today, they seem powerless to control inflation. Fearful of raising interest rates too far, they issue hollow calls for wage restraint. No wonder Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, admitted to MPs recently that “It’s a very, very difficult place for us to be in.”

Investors need to look beyond the conventional for real returns

May 20, 2022

Financial markets – with their twists and turns and unknowability – remind us just how hard it is to predict the future and just how wonderful perfect foresight would be, says Ruffer LLP’s Duncan MacInnes.

In the Back To The Future trilogy, the bad guy is a bully called Biff Tannen.

The megalomaniac mogul amassed his wealth because his older self travelled back in time to give his younger self the Grays Sports Almanac, a compilation of every sports result from 1950 to 2000. So Biff was able to earn a spectacular fortune from sports betting.

Financial markets – with their twists and turns and unknowability – remind us just how hard it is to predict the future and just how wonderful perfect foresight would be.

Taking back control? Demise of the deflation machine

May 5, 2022

Globally, inflation is likely to be higher and more volatile. Inflation risk, an absent adversary throughout the careers of most investors today, will need to be priced once again, says Ruffer LLP’s Jamie Dannhauser.

In the late 1970s, the world was on the cusp of radical change. The ‘Deflation Machine’ was being born. Deng Xiaoping, having outmanoeuvred Mao Zedong’s preferred successor, began the process of reforming China’s moribund economy. In the West, liberal, free-market ideals were gaining traction, ideals that underpinned the subsequent regime of rapid, disinflationary global growth.