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inflation

December 14, 2020

The 60/40 portfolio has served investors well for the past 50 years (1). It has been the allocation of choice for traditional balanced portfolios—60% in equities for the good times, 40% in bonds for the bad (and for the yield).

The 60/40 portfolio has served investors well for the past 50 years (1). It has been the allocation of choice for traditional balanced portfolios—60% in equities for the good times, 40% in bonds for the bad (and for the yield).

The past 50 years have been characterised by falling interest rates, low inflation and low volatility. A superb environment for both bonds and equities. But we may be entering a regime change which could see these conditions reverse.

December 10, 2020

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

With the world in the early post-recession recovery phase of the business cycle, our medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings is positive. We believe that 2021 will feature an extended period of low-inflation, low-interest rate growth that favours equities over bonds.

October 8, 2020

Whatever one’s outlook, there have been times in 2020 when the markets seemed to echo one’s innermost thoughts, and times when we shout out like Falstaff, that the whole world has gone mad. The bulls and the bears have had their time in the sun, and their time on the dark face of the moon—what follows is a digested diary of our journey through the year 2020 so far.

July 10, 2020

We’ve heard a lot about how the coronavirus has made an impact across the fintech realm, but what about in the crypto space? With an unstable stock market, why weren’t investors fleeing to alternative, blockchain-based assets?

We’ve heard a lot about how the coronavirus has made an impact across the fintech realm, but what about in the crypto space? With an unstable stock market, why weren’t investors fleeing to alternative, blockchain-based assets?

July 7, 2020

The most frequently asked question I get from people with a new interest in crypto and blockchain technology is how to get investment exposure to the asset class. In this article, I’m going to tell you what options are out there, what, from my view, the respective pros and cons of each are, and, most importantly, which way may suit you best based on your investment size, risk profile, tech understanding and the amount of effort you want to put in.

The most frequently asked question I get from people with a new interest in crypto and blockchain technology is how to get investment exposure to the asset class. In this article, I’m going to tell you what options are out there, what, from my view, the respective pros and cons of each are, and, most importantly, which way may suit you best based on your investment size, risk profile, tech understanding and the amount of effort you want to put in.

May 28, 2020

A pandemic has struck in the form of Covid-19, grinding the global economy to a halt. Politicians are desperately scrambling to enact legislation to protect their constituents as corporate chief executives jockey for the position of being the first constituent in line for their bailout. Unprecedented payments are being made by governments to their citizens to help meet their short-term obligations, and financial markets have utterly collapsed to the tune of extreme volatility, that in crypto, we call Monday.

February 12, 2020

Ronald Reagan ran in 1984 with a famous TV commercial which started with the line ‘It’s morning in America’. This was to signify that the best was yet to come. We think there is a chance, just a chance, that the UK could also be at the start of an exciting period.

Ronald Reagan ran in 1984 with a famous TV commercial which started with the line ‘It’s morning in America’. This was to signify that the best was yet to come. We think there is a chance, just a chance, that the UK could also be at the start of an exciting period.

February 25, 2013

Equity purchases made under duress produce a joyless stock market rally, where people are desperate to preserve their wealth, rather than cheer on recovery.

Six years ago, Zimbabwean shares were enjoying one of the greatest rallies the world has ever seen.

In the year to April 2007, the local stock market was up 12,000% as investors rushed to invest.

President Robert Mugabe was leading the country towards bankruptcy, after letting his war veterans seize farms owned by white farmers. Agriculture was in a state of collapse. Roads were crumbling. The rate of unemployment was 80%. Industry was bankrupt. Yet stocks defied reality.

January 15, 2013

In years gone by, central banks were supposed to be the guardians of monetary discipline – vigilant in protecting citizens against inflation and currency debasement. They were rarely known to smile.

In years gone by, central banks were supposed to be the guardians of monetary discipline – vigilant in protecting citizens against inflation and currency debasement. They were rarely known to smile.

Bankers used to quake every time the governor of the Bank of England twitched an eyebrow. Former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker developed a fearsome reputation for taming inflation in the early 1980s.

But the times are changing to suit economic circumstances, as anxious politicians bend central bankers to their will.

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