Vimeo
LinkedIn
Instagram
Share |

forecast

October 1, 2021

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

Amid this backdrop, our outlook favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

July 13, 2021

We have been talking of inflation for well over a decade—which is not the same thing as calling its timing. An impasse was created by the failure of the economy to grow after the 2008 crisis—all the risks (as we patiently explained) were deflationary, and in vain did the central banks and governments try to force an inflationary impulse into a sluggish world. Their primary weapon? An invention, deployed on a grand scale—quantitative easing (QE to its friends).

I am writing this just before a US inflation report which, to quote Bloomberg, “May provide clues on the monetary-policy outlook; S&P futures were little changed, as were European stocks [awaiting] the next policy statement from the European Central Bank…”

January 12, 2021

The year 2020 will loom large on financial markets for many years to come. As we cautiously make our way out of the crisis, Duncan MacInnes and Fiona Ker review the more startling developments of the last year, share their insights into the ongoing recovery and look ahead to some of key challenges facing investors in 2021.

The year 2020 will loom large on financial markets for many years to come.

As we cautiously make our way out of the crisis, Duncan MacInnes and Fiona Ker, of Ruffer LLP, review the more startling developments of the last year, share their insights into the ongoing recovery and look ahead to some of key challenges facing investors in 2021.

January 4, 2021

After a 2020 that was nowhere near what most of us anticipated, it’s perhaps bullish to make predictions about 2021, but Tom McGinness, KPMG’s head of family business, is not deterred from outlining the top 10 topics that he expects to be discussing with those leading family businesses during the coming year.

After a 2020 that was nowhere near what most of us anticipated, it’s perhaps bullish to make predictions about 2021, but Tom McGinness, KPMG’s head of family business, is not deterred from outlining the top 10 topics that he expects to be discussing with those leading family businesses during the coming year.

1.            Reviewing shared purpose

December 18, 2020

What is the role of private markets in the midst of the coronavirus? As the investment environment continues to evolve while investors adapt to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, we believe that private assets will play an increasingly important strategic role in fortifying portfolios over the long term, and that the current landscape provides compelling opportunities.

What is the role of private markets in the midst of the coronavirus? As the investment environment continues to evolve while investors adapt to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, we believe that private assets will play an increasingly important strategic role in fortifying portfolios over the long term, and that the current landscape provides compelling opportunities.

December 10, 2020

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

With the world in the early post-recession recovery phase of the business cycle, our medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings is positive. We believe that 2021 will feature an extended period of low-inflation, low-interest rate growth that favours equities over bonds.

December 9, 2020

Covid-19 has created challenges for short-term investment performance and fundraising, but the longer-term prospects are strong and the capital shift to real assets will continue. In 2021, more than ever, real assets are likely to be a source of attractive risk adjusted returns.

Covid-19 has created challenges for short-term investment performance and fundraising, but the longer-term prospects are strong and the capital shift to real assets will continue. In 2021, more than ever, real assets are likely to be a source of attractive risk adjusted returns.

December 2, 2020

The unique shape of the Covid-19 crisis and accompanying recession has meant some industries have thrived while others have dived. In caricature, everyone now uses Zoom and Peloton, while offices and gyms were forced to close.

The unique shape of the Covid-19 crisis and accompanying recession has meant some industries have thrived while others have dived. In caricature, everyone now uses Zoom and Peloton, while offices and gyms were forced to close.

What does the K mean? Online shopping wins, traditional retailing loses. Commercial property such as offices and shops lose, but logistics warehouses thrive. City apartments struggle, suburbs with gardens boom. The digital economy beats everything.

November 8, 2020

Digitalisation, flexibility and safety keep Melia’s doors open against drop in revenue, Otto Group ‘bounces back’ off e-commerce acceleration, Clark family rescue shoe business with LionRock Capital deal.

Digitalisation, flexibility and safety keep Melia’s doors open against drop in revenue

Spain’s Escarrer family is determined to improve the competitiveness and efficiencies of its global hotel business after counting the cost of the “terrible” impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the travel industry.

Click here >>
Close