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April 21, 2021

In lockdown, I have been watching the blockbuster Deutschland 89. There’s a moment in the hours before the fall of the Berlin Wall when the top-dog commissar considers whether to shoot himself—but a little piece of hemp consoles him with the thought that times of change are times of opportunity, times that bring up new winners.

In lockdown, I have been watching the blockbuster Deutschland 89. There’s a moment in the hours before the fall of the Berlin Wall when the top-dog commissar considers whether to shoot himself—but a little piece of hemp consoles him with the thought that times of change are times of opportunity, times that bring up new winners.

March 31, 2021

Vaccines and US stimulus have the global economy on track for a strong rebound in the second half of the year. We expect the reopening trade to favour equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Vaccines and US stimulus have the global economy on track for a strong rebound in the second half of the year. We expect the reopening trade to favour equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

March 31, 2021

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

Investors’ great fear

January 27, 2021

Covid-19, Brexit, Black Lives Matter, climate change and the threats to US democracy have created a once in a lifetime opportunity for family next generations to cultivate their “grit”, says a leading family clinical and consulting psychotherapist.

Covid-19, Brexit, Black Lives Matter, climate change and the threats to US democracy have created a once in a lifetime opportunity for family next generations to cultivate their “grit”, says a leading family clinical and consulting psychotherapist.

January 21, 2021

Somewhere in a cupboard, I have a set of eight contract notes dated 8 January 1975, when I invested—upwards of £100 per holding!—in a range of UK equities. Reader, I called the bottom of the market—a dangerous thing for a young man to do.

Somewhere in a cupboard, I have a set of eight contract notes dated 8 January 1975, when I invested—upwards of £100 per holding!—in a range of UK equities. Reader, I called the bottom of the market—a dangerous thing for a young man to do.

December 14, 2020

The 60/40 portfolio has served investors well for the past 50 years (1). It has been the allocation of choice for traditional balanced portfolios—60% in equities for the good times, 40% in bonds for the bad (and for the yield).

The 60/40 portfolio has served investors well for the past 50 years (1). It has been the allocation of choice for traditional balanced portfolios—60% in equities for the good times, 40% in bonds for the bad (and for the yield).

The past 50 years have been characterised by falling interest rates, low inflation and low volatility. A superb environment for both bonds and equities. But we may be entering a regime change which could see these conditions reverse.

December 10, 2020

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

With the world in the early post-recession recovery phase of the business cycle, our medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings is positive. We believe that 2021 will feature an extended period of low-inflation, low-interest rate growth that favours equities over bonds.

December 9, 2020

Campden Wealth starts 2021 with a bang with its 7th virtual Fund Manager & Investment Event on 21 January, open to qualifying family offices and private investors.

Campden Wealth starts 2021 with a bang with its 7th virtual Fund Manager & Investment Event on 21 January, open to qualifying family offices and private investors.

A total of four funds or direct investments will present their strategies in the latest interactive webinar. To date these have included impact investments, equities, venture capital, private equity, private credit, private debt, real estate, hedge funds, agriculture, emerging markets, technology and more.

November 18, 2020

The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets buoyed by abundant liquidity, we fear a traditional ‘diversified’ portfolio is not going to be much protection in the next market convulsion.

The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets buoyed by abundant liquidity, we fear a traditional ‘diversified’ portfolio is not going to be much protection in the next market convulsion.

In particular, we believe that conventional bonds will provide neither acceptable returns in good times, nor much protection in a downturn.

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